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陸挺過去十年中國增速下行的主要原因是中國潛在增長速度下行
2020-01-06 21:56   来源:  www.rozanews.com   评论:0 点击:

陸挺過去十年中國增速下行的主要原因是中國潛在增長速度下行有人說過去這十年經濟增長速度明顯不盡如人意,

有人說過去這十年經濟增長速度明顯不盡如人意,從10%到6%,主要的原因是刺激力度不足。我認為論據是不足的,先不說2009年-2010年中國的社會融資規模增長速度達到30%左右,就說2016年、2017年也到達17%、18%。這幾年中國社會融資規模或者全社會信貸增長速度遠遠高于GDP的增長速度。

Some say the past decade's growth has been markedly less rapid, from 10% to 6%, mainly because of a lack of stimulus. I think the argument is insufficient, let's not say that China's social financing scale grew at about 30% in 2009-2010, but also reached 17% and 18% in 2016 and 2017. In recent years, the scale of China's social financing or the growth of credit in the whole society has been much faster than that of GDP.

另一方面從財政角度來看,如果加上中國地方政府隱性債務,過去十年中國政府的財政赤字在8%到10%左右,遠遠高于世界平均水平,因此在這個過程中說中國的刺激力度不夠是不嚴謹的。

On the other hand, the government's fiscal deficit in the past decade, if combined with China's local government's implicit debt, has been around 8% to 10%, well above the world average, so it is not rigorous to say in the process that China's stimulus is not strong enough.

從杠桿率上升的角度來講,中國過去十幾年在杠桿率方面全球增速是最快的;從勞動力角度來講,過去十年一直在往上走。另一方面農民工的收入,和城鎮集體企業人均工資和其他企業的人均工資增長速度大部分超過了中國名義GDP的增長速度;從勞動力的角度來講,也沒有看到明顯過去十年有大量的失業人員。這個角度判斷,沒有發現因為刺激不夠,我們總供給遠遠大于總需求,中國經濟增長完全可以增長更快,并沒有這樣的邏輯。

In terms of rising leverage, China has seen the fastest global growth in leverage over the past decade or so; in terms of labor, it has been moving upwards for the past decade. On the other hand, the incomes of migrant workers, as well as the per capita wages of urban collectives and other enterprises, have grown more rapidly than the growth of China's nominal GDP, and the labour force has not seen a significant number of unemployed people in the past decade. From this point of view, it is not found that because of insufficient stimulus, our aggregate supply is far greater than aggregate demand, and there is no such logic that China's economy can grow more rapidly.

很多人都說本來我們8%要增長十年、二十年肯定沒有問題,唯一罪魁禍首是全球經濟,尤其是雷曼危機,直接導致了本來中國每年可以增長百分之八九,還可以增長十年二十年,但是到了全球金融危機之后全球的增長速度放緩,所以,壓制整個中國出口的增長速度,是不是這樣呢?中國的出口與全球的增長速度,可以說在2008年、2009年以前基本上是同步的,但是到了這之后的話,其實全球經濟增長速度,除中國以外,過去八九年跟金融危機之前僅慢了個百分點,而中國的出口增長速度慢了將近二十個百分點,原因是什么?難道都是怪全球經濟嗎?肯定不是,這中間有一個原因是我們國內的廉價勞動力逐漸喪失,另一方面中國經濟占全球中間的比例越來越高,當全球經濟增長速度只有百分之二三,我們怎么可能每年增長百分之二三十呢,你的增長需求結構必須要調整。

Many say that if we were to grow 8% for a decade or two, the only culprit would be the global economy, especially the lehman crisis, which directly led to china's growth rate of 89% per year or 10 or 20 years per year, but the global growth rate slowed after the global financial crisis, so isn't that true for suppressing the growth of exports across china? China's exports are largely in line with the world's growth rate before 2008 and 2009, but after that, the growth rate of the global economy has been only one percentage point slower in the past eight or nine years than before the financial crisis, and China's export growth rate has been nearly 20 percentage points slower. Are they all blame for the global economy? Surely no, there's one reason why we're losing cheap labor at home, and the fact that China's economy is making up a growing proportion of the world's middle, when the world's growth rate is only two or three percent, how can we grow by two or thirty percent a year, and your growth needs have to be restructured.

過去十年中國經濟增長速度下行的主要原因是中國潛在增長速度下行,不是各種外需原因或者是刺激不夠的原因。未來五到十年我們國家潛在的增長速度究竟會是怎樣,這個難度非常大,因為涉及到對未來的判斷。我的判斷就是未來這幾年我們的潛在增長速度會到6%以下,接近5,甚至接近4,但是更有可能往下先走到5%左右。

The main reason China's economic growth has fallen over the past decade is that the country's potential growth rate has fallen, not because of a variety of external demand or insufficient stimulus. What the potential growth rate of our country will be in the next five to ten years is very difficult because it involves judging the future. My judgment is that in the next few years our potential growth will be below 6%, close to 5, or even 4, but more likely to go down to about 5%.


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