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FX168每周美元調查美元反彈或結束非農來襲小心意外大跌
2020-01-06 23:27   来源:  www.rozanews.com   评论:0 点击:

FX168每周美元調查美元反彈或結束非農來襲小心意外大跌FX168財經報社(香港)訊據周六(1月4日)FX168每周金融

FX168財經報社(香港)訊據周六(1月4日)FX168每周金融市場調查顯示,本周美元先抑后揚,貿易局勢緊張、經濟數據疲弱,再加上美聯儲向市場注入巨大的流動性,美元承壓,最低跌至,周五受到避險情緒提振,最高反彈至,隨后回到97下方。分析師和交易員對美元下周的前景出現分歧。

NEW YORK (Reuters)- The U.S. dollar rallied to the bottom of 97 after a week of tight trade and weak economic data as the Federal Reserve injected huge liquidity into the market on Saturday (Jan.4), a weekly financial market survey showed. Analysts and traders are at odds over the dollar's outlook for next week.

原子資產管理(香港)有限公司,創始人兼基金管理人周一認為,美元指數技術形態在2019年12月收線確認頂部,重要支撐位已被跌破,恐有繼續下跌風險,建議投資者逢高堅定做空,下方空間巨大!

Atomic asset management (hong kong) ltd., founder and fund manager, on monday said that the dollar index technology form at the end of the line in december 2019 confirmed that the top, the important support has been broken, there is a risk of continued decline, it is recommended that investors every high firm short, the space below huge!

本周,美元上半周持續遭遇拋售,最低,因貿易局勢的樂觀消息,美國經濟數據疲軟,加劇經濟擔憂,以及美聯儲向市場注入巨大流動性,不過周四、周五,美元迎來反彈,尤其是周五最高升至。

This week, the dollar continued to suffer from a sell-off in the last half of the week, with positive news of the trade situation, weak US economic data, increased economic concerns, and the Federal Reserve injected huge liquidity into the market, but on Thursday, Friday, the dollar was in a rebound, particularly the highest rise to Friday.

消息面來看,美國總統特朗普稱,他期待于1月15日之前同中方簽署第一階段經貿協議。這給期待貿易協議細節的市場帶來提振,刺激了冒險意愿,打壓美元,最低刷新六個月低位。

美國供應管理協會(ISM)報告稱,美國12月制造業活動降幅為逾十年最大,訂單跌至近11年低點,制造業就業人數連續第五個月下降。美國制造業陷入10年來最嚴重的衰退,也打壓美元指數。

The U.S. Supply Management Association (ISM) reported the largest decline in manufacturing activity in more than a decade in December, with orders falling to nearly 11-year lows and manufacturing employment falling for the fifth consecutive month. The U.S. manufacturing industry has plunged into its worst recession in a decade and has also weighed on the dollar index.

CambridgeGlobalPayments首席市場策略師KarlSchamotta:“這是一個令人沮喪的數字,與貿易沖突相關的不確定性實際上正在持續損害制造業,直指GDP疲弱,尤其是在下個季度,因為你很可能看到的是庫存下降,而不是持續增加。”

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge GlobalPayments:\" This is a frustrating number, and uncertainty associated with trade conflicts is actually continuing to hurt manufacturing, pointing to weak GDP, especially in the coming quarter, as you are likely to see a fall in inventory rather than a sustained increase.\"

對美元的長期影響尚不清楚。盡管美元周五受到經濟數據拖累而走低,但如果美國制造業放緩削弱人們對2020年全球經濟增長的希望,美元最終可能受益。

The long-term impact on the dollar is unclear. Although the dollar was dragged down by economic data on friday, the dollar could eventually benefit if the us manufacturing slowdown weakens hopes of global growth by 2020.

麥格理集團全球利率和外匯策略師ThierryWizman說:“我們認為,2020年的總體趨勢仍然是美元兌主要貨幣走弱。這在一定程度上受全球經濟將恢復增長的觀點支撐,這將有利于非美貨幣。”

\"We think the overall trend for 2020 is still the weakening of the dollar against major currencies,\" said Thierry Wizman, global rate and foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie Group. This is partly underpinned by the idea that the global economy will return to growth, which will benefit non-US currencies.

技術上,美元指數本周持穩一線反彈,周五目前在一線受阻,不過考慮到走勢已經下破2018年以來上行趨勢線并且同時處于2019年10月以來下行通道中,繼續突破繼續上漲預計空間也不會很大。

Technically, the U.S. dollar index rebounded this week and is now on the block on Friday, although given that it has broken the upward trend line since 2018 and is also in the downward path since October 2019, it is not much room to continue to break through.

關于日元:美軍無人機空襲伊拉克,炸死伊朗將軍,導致中東緊張局勢驟然升溫,日元等避險資產上揚,美元/日元連續跌破了多個技術支撐,創下11月初以來最低。

Regarding the yen: U.S. drone strikes in Iraq killed Iranian generals, causing a sudden rise in tensions in the Middle East, as risk-averse assets such as the yen rose and the U.S. dollar\/JPY fell below several technical supports, its lowest since early November.


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